The $65K DCA floor thesis is interesting — and the historical parallel with 2022 holds up. The people who missed the $16K entry weren't wrong on the thesis. They were paralyzed by the hope of a price that never came.
One thing I'd push back on slightly: the 4-year cycle is a behavioral pattern as much as a technical one. The institutional infrastructure this cycle — spot ETFs, options, CME volatility futures — changes the demand elasticity in a way 2022 didn't have. The floor dynamics might not be as clean as prior cycles.
That said, DCA into strength at sub-$65K is defensible. The exchange reserve data backs it up — BTC is leaving exchanges at a rate that makes a clean flush to $40K structurally harder than it looks on the chart. What's your altcoin rotation trigger — are you waiting for a specific BTC dominance level or a calendar date?
The $65K DCA floor thesis is interesting — and the historical parallel with 2022 holds up. The people who missed the $16K entry weren't wrong on the thesis. They were paralyzed by the hope of a price that never came.
One thing I'd push back on slightly: the 4-year cycle is a behavioral pattern as much as a technical one. The institutional infrastructure this cycle — spot ETFs, options, CME volatility futures — changes the demand elasticity in a way 2022 didn't have. The floor dynamics might not be as clean as prior cycles.
That said, DCA into strength at sub-$65K is defensible. The exchange reserve data backs it up — BTC is leaving exchanges at a rate that makes a clean flush to $40K structurally harder than it looks on the chart. What's your altcoin rotation trigger — are you waiting for a specific BTC dominance level or a calendar date?