🔍My plan for Bitcoin
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GM friends.
Here’s what I’ll cover today:
🔎My plan for Bitcoin
📊 Crypto chart of the week
🗞️ The latest DeFi news
🔎My plan for Bitcoin
It’s been a pretty rough week for BTC.
The good thing about bear markets, though, is that they bring life-changing opportunities. We’ve seen in both 2018 and 2022 that if you have the balls to buy when everyone else is scared, it can pay off big time.
Earlier this year, I shared my plan and market expectations for 2026.
Now feels like a good time to provide an update, so I wanted to share what I think could happen next for BTC, and explain how I’m positioning myself.
Let’s dive in 👇
The 4-year cycle is still intact
I know the 4-year cycle theory may not make a lot of sense from a fundamental perspective, which is why a lot of people don’t believe in it, but the reality is this:
In 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC did the exact same thing.
~1 year after it topped in the post-Halving year, it hit its cycle bottom.
And according to the chart below, which shows the BTC ROI over midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022), BTC is now following its usual 4-year trajectory.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it will keep falling as much as it did in previous cycles. Historically, each bear market has been less severe than the previous one.
But based on what happened in the past, I think the most likely scenario is that the cycle bottom will be reached sometime in September or maybe October. I am saying this because Q4 is historically when BTC tends to bottom in the midterm years.
So far, I don’t see anything that indicates that this time will be different.
That said, I think it’s a bad idea to try to time the bottom perfectly.
A lot of people who believed in BTC in 2022 didn’t buy it at $16k because they were waiting for $14k. $14k was never hit again, and they ended up watching BTC go to new all-time highs without any exposure.
I am personally not willing to risk that happening to me, so here’s what I am doing:
My current action plan
For me, anything below $65,000 is a good zone to accumulate BTC.
Even though I think the bottom is not in yet, this week I’ve already started dollar-cost averaging into BTC by buying small amounts daily as long as it stays below $65k.
The truth is that no one knows exactly what the market will do next. So while I’m still keeping most of my stablecoins ready to deploy later as we get closer to Q4, according to my original thesis, I also think buying a bit at current levels makes sense just for the scenario that my thesis is wrong.
Anyway, the lower BTC goes, and the closer it gets to $50k, the more I plan to buy.
I mentioned $50k because, at the moment, I think that if BTC dips below $60k, $50k is the level around which I’d expect it to hit the bottom.
That said, if a major crypto company implodes (like FTX in 2022) or there’s a huge stock market crash that affects all financial markets, it could maybe dip below this level and even reach $40k in a worst-case scenario.
But personally, I’d rather deploy my capital earlier at a slightly higher price than wait for BTC to hit $40k, which may never happen.
My goal is to deploy all my available stablecoins into BTC by the end of November 2026 at the latest, as I think it’s unlikely BTC will continue falling much after that.
I expect to get a great average entry price by doing this.
At some point, I will obviously also be interested in buying some altcoins.
But if you look at how BTC performed relative to most altcoins in the last cycle, I think it makes more sense to focus on BTC for now and only start building significant altcoin exposure once they show clear signs of strength.
The harsh reality is that people who bought BTC at $16k-$20k in 2022 and simply held until new all-time highs outperformed more than 95% of altcoin traders.
I guess the lesson is that less is more.
You don’t need a complicated strategy to outperform.
I hope you found this helpful, and good luck out there!
Better times for crypto will come. You just have to believe.
Chart of the week
Near’s privacy solution is gaining traction fast
Crypto meme of the week😂
The latest developments in DeFi
CFTC legalized perps in the US
Sky and Pendle partnered to launch a fixed-rate sUSDS product
Morpho released the whitepaper for Morpho Midnight - an upcoming protocol for fixed rate, fixed term credit markets
Ethena partnered with Coinbase to launch a new savings product
Tom Lee’s Bitmine announced plans to create a STRC-style product in order to raise money and buy more ETH
Arbitrum Foundation published a proposal asking Arbitrum DAO for ~$43.5M to fund another year of operations
Grayscale launched its Hyperliquid Staking ETF
NEAR Intents surpassed $20B in all-time cross-chain volume
Lighter founder announced they are working on an options product
Exponent V2, a new interest rate trading platform on Solana, went live
EtherFi launched 15% cashback for AI tool bills paid with EtherFi Cash
Zodial, the first portfolio-margin lending protocol in DeFi, went live on Solana
Opensea announced its own perps DEX powered by Hyperliquid
Radiant Capital announced it is shutting down
Cap announced its ICO starting on June 10
That’s all for this week!
Until next time,
The DeFi Investor
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The $65K DCA floor thesis is interesting — and the historical parallel with 2022 holds up. The people who missed the $16K entry weren't wrong on the thesis. They were paralyzed by the hope of a price that never came.
One thing I'd push back on slightly: the 4-year cycle is a behavioral pattern as much as a technical one. The institutional infrastructure this cycle — spot ETFs, options, CME volatility futures — changes the demand elasticity in a way 2022 didn't have. The floor dynamics might not be as clean as prior cycles.
That said, DCA into strength at sub-$65K is defensible. The exchange reserve data backs it up — BTC is leaving exchanges at a rate that makes a clean flush to $40K structurally harder than it looks on the chart. What's your altcoin rotation trigger — are you waiting for a specific BTC dominance level or a calendar date?