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GM friends.
Hereâs what Iâll cover today:
đHow will the US-Iran war impact crypto?
đ Crypto chart of the week
đď¸ The latest DeFi news
đHow will the US-Iran war impact crypto?
As you all know, a new war between US + Israel and Iran has recently started.
While the Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei was already killed in a strike, it doesnât seem like this is a conflict that could be ended in a few days like in Venezuela.
So I thought it would be helpful to share a few thoughts about what impact this could have on the crypto market over the next few weeks.
Because whether we like it or not, all markets are influenced by geopolitical events.
Here you can see how BTC has reacted in the past when a major conflict started:
Russia attacks Ukraine in February, 24 2022 â BTC dips 8% on that day, but it quickly recovered and rallied for the next 30 days
Hamas attacks Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 â BTC dips 5%, but then it resumes the uptrend later that month
US attacks Iran on June 22, 2025 â BTC dips 4%, but it quickly recovers and starts going up the next day
Wars are a horrible thing, and my hope is that this new one in Iran ends quickly with as few victims as possible. But as you can observe, their impact on markets tends to be short-lived and limited.
This is something worth keeping in mind though:
Iranâs biggest strategic leverage is that it controls the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil shipping routes in the world. Around 20% of the global oil supply passes through it via tankers.
Since the war in Iran began, it has become extremely dangerous for ships to pass through, as Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.
This is why oil prices have been surging over the past few days.
How does this impact crypto?
Well, it indirectly affects it by creating a new geopolitical crisis and additional macro uncertainty, which is not great for risk-on assets.
If Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a longer period of time (several weeks), it will eventually lead to higher inflation and more panic. Several countries are already working though on a plan to escort tanker convoys through the strait.
That being said, historically, most geopolitical shocks created a pattern:
Everyone initially panics, and BTC dips a few percent
After a few days, markets start recovering
A new major crash could probably be caused by this war only if the US decides to send boots on the ground in Iran. (which seems unlikely)
If that doesnât happen, from a market perspective, I doubt that this war will have a major negative impact on crypto prices going forward, and I wouldnât be surprised if BTC performs relatively well in the next few days/weeks.
However, I still believe the BTC cycle bottom hasnât been hit yet and that this bear market is unfortunately not over. (but not because of the war in Iran)
As you can see in the chart above (shared at the end of Feb. 2026), BTC tends to go up slightly in March during midterm years (2026, 2022, 2018).
However, this pump has historically lasted only a few weeks.
If this bear market continues to resemble the previous ones, I believe that BTC will hit its final bottom sometime in late Q3 / early Q4 2026.
Obviously, I donât have a crystal ball. So take this with a grain of salt.
But so far, this cycle has been extremely similar to the last two cycles, and I donât see any big catalyst that could trigger a new bull run in the short term.
So my plan is to buy major BTC dips in the meantime with a relatively small portion of my capital, while keeping most of it ready to DCA heavily starting in Q3.
History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
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Chart of the week
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 markets hit a new ATH in daily open interest
Crypto meme of the weekđ
The latest developments in DeFi
Hyperliquidâs HIP-4 upgrade, which will add support for prediction markets, went live on testnet
Nasdaq partnered with Kraken to bring tokenized equity markets to Ethereum and Solana
Theo launched thUSD, the first stablecoin earning yield from gold futures instead of crypto perps or T-Bills. thUSD Genesis Vault was filled in less than 24h
Polymarket is reportedly trying to raise funds at a $20 billion valuation
Stargate announced that 100% of its revenue will be directed to ZRO buybacks starting next month
Across proposed converting ACX tokens to equity
Jupiter launched Jupiter Card - a crypto card integrated inside Jupiter Mobile
Virtuals introduced ERC-8183 - a mechanism designed to enable commercial transactions between AI Agents on Ethereum
xStocks launched a points program for the users of its tokenized stocks
Starknet introduced STRK20 - a new standard that makes all ERC-20 tokens private
Lido enabled permissionless stETH minting for all stVaults
Polygon launched Agent CLI, enabling AI agents to create wallets and manage funds on-chain
Sonic introduced USSD - Sonicâs native USD stablecoin built in partnership with Frax
Based launched its airdrop checker
Thatâs all for this week!
Until next time,
The DeFi Investor
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