🔎My market view

weekly valuable insights

Jun 19, 2025

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In today’s newsletter:

🔎My market view

📊 On-chain alpha

😂 Crypto meme of the week

🗞️ The latest DeFi news

🔎My market view

The tariff war is finally over… so now we can resume the uptrend, right?

Well, not really. Whenever the market seems primed for a relief rally, another terrible news headline suddenly drops.

This time, a full-blown war between Iran and Israel seems closer than ever, where the US could also be involved as Trump says he wants to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

In this issue, I wanted to share some thoughts on how this could potentially impact the market and what to expect next.

Let’s dive in 👇

Past Iran <> Israel conflicts

I’ll start by sharing an interesting table I’ve seen recently:

As you can see above, this is not the first time that an Iran-Israel conflict looks like it could lead to a much bigger war.

On the bright side, every single time when Israel was on the brink of a war with Iran, the conflict was quickly resolved, and BTC rebounded within 3-4 weeks.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens now.

At the time of the writing, Polymarket users predict there’s a 36% chance that US-Iran diplomatic nuclear talks resume before July.

The current state of crypto

If we talk about crypto specifically and ignore the macro events, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an avalanche of great news as in the recent weeks.

Just in case you missed it, here’s what happened in the past 30 days:

The US Senate passed the 'Genius Act' pro-stablecoin bill
The world’s largest bank announced the launch of its stablecoin on Base
Circle’s IPO on the New York Stock Exchange was a huge success
Thailand has exempted crypto capital gains tax for 5 years
DeFi kept hitting new all-time highs across a lot of metrics
Vietnam passes law officially recognizing crypto assets
SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced that DeFi platforms will be exempt from regulatory restrictions

… and I could go on and on

We’ve been waiting for years for institutional adoption and crypto-friendly regulations. And now it’s finally happening.

Still, crypto is very reliant on the macro conditions and on the geopolitical situation.

So, regardless of how much bullish crypto news we get, until the stock market also starts surging and people start feeling comfortable taking risks again, I doubt we’ll see a major crypto rally.

There’s an upcoming catalyst that could lead to a massive pump later this year though.

The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ that Trump is heavily backing is expected to increase US federal debt by nearly $3 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Why does this matter, and how would it impact crypto?

The higher the US national debt goes, the more the crypto market and the stock market will likely go up. The reason for this is that every major increase in deficit spending ultimately also leads to a surge in inflation.

more money in circulation → higher prices for scarce assets

And so far, BTC has been a great hedge against inflation.

Final thoughts

There are also a few reasons to be less optimistic.

According to Coinglass, BTC’s average quarterly return in Q3 is 6% ― way below its returns in all the other quarters.

So we might be heading into a slow summer for the markets.

That said, if Iran and Israel find a way to reach an agreement and avoid a war, BTC is very likely to see a relief rally at least in the short term.

And hopefully, in Q4, we run it back, and risk assets will start catching a bid.

There’s no true winner in a war except the military-industrial complex.

Let’s hope this conflict will be resolved quickly, not just so our bags can pump, but so innocent lives won’t be lost in another war.

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