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In today’s newsletter:
🔎My advice for 2025
📊On-chain alpha
😂Crypto meme of the week
🗞️The latest DeFi news
🔎My advice for 2025
This bull cycle is my second cycle.
I have to say that I’m extremely grateful for how crypto changed my life so far.
But there are also countless mistakes that I made along the way that ended up costing me a lot of money. And there’s no need for you to repeat them.
With this in mind, in this issue, I wanted to share a few tips based on my experience that I wish I had known when I first discovered crypto👇
Stick only to a few high-conviction plays
Let’s say that there are 30 tokens you like on your watchlist.
If you invest the same % of your portfolio in all these tokens and one of them skyrockets and does a 100x, your portfolio will greatly benefit.
But that 100x will probably not change your life.
Moreover, chances are that you’ll not have enough time to keep up with the developments of all the projects you invested in.
And some of your bags will eventually start going to 0 before you even realize it in order to be able to cut the losses.
So what I suggest is the following:
If for instance there are 30 tokens in total that you’re bullish on, invest only in the top 7-8 of them that you believe have the most potential.
Holding a smaller number of tokens at once also makes it much easier to control your risk. And when one of them skyrockets, you’ll win big.
The easiest way to make it is through concentrated, high-conviction bets.
Study history, not forecasts
Every once in a while I see on X unrealistic predictions about BTC reaching somewhere between $500k and $1M this cycle.
I get it—everyone dreams of getting rich, and these posts give people hope.
But if you’re actually serious about making life-changing money, I highly recommend studying what happened in the previous market cycles instead of listening to predictions that are not backed by any solid thesis or data.
Search for historical patterns that tell you:
What caused the end of the previous bull markets
How much could BTC realistically go up this time
What do past top performers have in common
How to potentially identify the bull cycle top
How long does a bull cycle typically last
And then build your thesis based on what you think is likely to happen next.
Here’s an example of an interesting historical pattern:
BTC has historically always surged after the US presidential elections.
The chart that you can see below started being shared on X in Sept. 2024. And as we’ve all seen at the end of the last year, BTC performed extremely well after the results of the 2024 elections were announced just like in the previous cycles.
I believe the main reason for this is that markets hate uncertainty. Once the election was over, the uncertainty faded, benefiting financial markets.
Those who studied the past market cycles were able to capitalize on this.
As a general rule, don’t fall for the trap of thinking "This time is different".
It rarely is. And from a risk/reward perspective, it doesn’t make sense to bet on this.
To be profitable in the long run, you have to make bets only when the probabilities are clearly in your favor.
Know when it’s enough
Lots of people fall into this trap:
They set a financial goal, and after that goal is hit, they keep chasing more and more money without taking any chips off the table.
This works until it doesn’t. I know a guy who wanted to make $500k last cycle. He started with $100k and turned it into $500k.
After that, he kept making big bets and his portfolio hit ~$900k. Then the bear market came, and he ended up losing almost everything as he never sold.
Your unrealized profits don’t matter. At the end of every cycle, the number 1 thing that most people say is "I wish I took profits".
Next time when every shitcoin starts pumping and you see that everyone on your X timeline is euphoric, please think about this.
The hardest part in a bull market is not making money, but keeping it.
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For enterprises, it’s worse. Competitors can track every partner payment or salary. If you’re identified on-chain, you’re attacked. Asset managers face front-running bots, and clients might skip fees by copying trades.
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On-chain Alpha🔎
Solana is now the leading blockchain by total AI agent market cap
Crypto Meme😂
The latest developments in DeFi
Virtuals Protocol expanded to Solana
Jupiter introduced Jupnet - an omnichain network that will connect all blockchains into a single system
Injective introduced its native EVM layer
Venice airdropped 25% of its VVV token supply to the holders of major AI community protocols such as Virtuals and Aixbt. Venice is a private, uncensored AI project
Elon Musk started exploring blockchain use in US government efficiency effort
ETH Strategy, a MicroStrategy-like protocol for buying ETH, was introduced. It will work within a DeFi-native framework
Cardano transitioned to fully decentralized governance
Abstract, an Ethereum L2 built for consumer dApps, went live
Jupiter announced a major buyback program for $JUP. 50% of the protocol fees will be used to buy JUP
Infinex released Swidge, enabling seamless cross-chain token swaps directly in-app
Berachain launched Boyco - a pre-launch liquidity platform with high Berachain incentives. It aims to solve the cold start problem for new dApps
Symbiotic, a restaking protocol, went live on the Ethereum mainnet
Karak, a popular restaking protocol, introduced its token $KAR. Its launch date hasn’t been officially announced yet
That’s all for this week!
Until next time,
The DeFi Investor
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