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GM friends. Here’s what I’ll cover today:
🔎How to trade prediction markets
📊 Crypto chart of the week
🗞️ The latest DeFi news
🔎How to trade prediction markets
The most straightforward way to make money in this industry is trading.
But not everyone can be a good trader, and even if you’re a successful trader, maybe you are looking to build another source of income.
So, in this issue, I thought it would be useful to cover another thing you can do to earn in crypto: participating in prediction markets.
This is not a “get-rich-quick scheme”.
But personally, I think there are a lot of opportunities to make some additional money from prediction markets, and I wanna share what worked for me.
Let’s dive in 👇
A quick overview of prediction markets
If you’ve been in crypto for a while, you’ve likely already heard at least once of prediction markets that let you bet on unknown future events.
Prediction markets have been one of the fastest-growing trends this cycle, and Polymarket is the largest prediction platform.
People simply love betting on what will happen next, and based on my experience, you can sometimes find prediction markets that are insanely mispriced.
And the best part: Polymarket doesn’t have a token (yet).
If it ever decides to do an airdrop, it could do a huge one, given that it just raised money at a $9B valuation this week.
The way how these markets work is very simple:
If you buy shares for a certain prediction market (e.g. you bet YES that HYPE will hit $100 this year) and you’re right, every share you have will be worth $1 when the market is resolved at the end of 2025.
Otherwise, each of your shares will be worth $0, and you’ll lose your money.
Using prediction market platforms, you can place bets on all kinds of events - from crypto, elections, to the economy, sports, and politics.
The rationale behind my recent bets
Personally, given that I spend most of my time in the crypto space, I bet primarly on the outcomes of future crypto-related events I’m familiar with.
I’ve managed to make some decent profits doing this so far, given that I see a lot of new info on CT every day that is not instantly priced in on prediction markets.
There are thousands of different markets on Polymarket. But you can select to see only the markets related to a certain topic (e.g. Crypto).
I’ll give you a few examples of prediction markets where I placed a bet recently:
Bought “NO” shares for “Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?” at 72c - My thesis: Metamask has recently announced plans to launch a points program, and the TGE of 99% of projects historically happens at least 3 months after their first points program goes live (I doubt it will be different for Metamask)
Bought “NO” shares for “Xi Jinping out by end of 2026?” at 81c - My thesis: I’m no fan of dictators, but I don’t see any signs that he will be removed from power soon. Buying “NO” shares at 81c seemed like a good bet to me
Bought “NO” shares for “Will Base launch a token in 2025?” at 88c - My thesis: Base didn’t confirm a token launch - they just announced they’re “exploring one” a couple weeks ago. Launching a token requires a lot of preparation, and this makes me think it’s highly unlikely to see the Base TGE in 2025
I’ve made all these bets on Polymarket as it has the deepest liquidity. But I also plan to start using other dApps like Limitless and MYRIAD, which already have a points program. (which means that their airdrops are confirmed)
My advice is not to just copytrade me. Try to place bets based on your own conviction: I shared the above list to show you my thinking process.
Now, am I 100% sure that I’ll be right about all these predictions I made?
Absolutely not. I am not Nostradamus. But my goal is to find mispriced prediction markets where I believe that the probability of something happening (or not happening) is much higher than the market-implied probability.
By doing this, in the long run, my wins should definitely offset my losses.
Before we continue, here’s an overview of Rezerve, the ETH treasury protocol:
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The On-Chain MicroStrategy for ETH
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At its core, Rezerve Money is a staking protocol inspired by MicroStrategy and OlympusDAO - built with the grand ambition of accumulating 1 million ETH.
Its native token, $RZR, functions like a leveraged bet on ETH - much like how $MSTR became a leveraged bet on BTC.
Rezerve recently launched something called “Liquid Bond” (USD29) - a mechanism that channels stablecoin capital directly into ETH - powering treasury growth.
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On Balancer LPs, APRs have reached huge levels
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Read more about it: https://x.com/rezervemoney/status/1970134780995072273
Why Rezerve Stands Out?
Rezerve offers more:
Liquid staking with lstRZR – Stake $RZR to earn auto-compounding rewards while receiving a liquid token in return
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Tier-1 partners – Deep integrations with Balancer, Curve, and EtherFi
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How to find new prediction market opportunities
My strategy is actually pretty straightforward.
Every morning, I do this:
Go to the Polymarket website (though, as I mentioned above, I also recommend using other prediction market platforms like Limitless for airdrop farming)
Take a look at the markets in these three sections: “Crypto”, “New”, and “Breaking” separately
Place a bet if I find any prediction opportunity about a topic I am already familiar with (e.g. something related to DeFi in my case) with good odds
And that’s it - all of this usually takes me 5-10 minutes at most.
If you’re passionate about politics, for example, and you’re very familiar with what’s currently happening in politics, you might want to bet on the politics markets.
It’s crucial to find your area of expertise.
On most days, I don’t find any interesting prediction markets where I believe the odds are good enough for me to make sense to place a YES or NO bet.
But on some days, I stumble across some great opportunities (in my opinion) like the ones I shared earlier.
To sum it up:
Is it worth participating in prediction markets?
If you have some free time for this, I believe the answer is yes.
Not only you can make some money by playing it smart, but you can also position yourself for the airdrop opportunities of the prediction markets.
So far, none of the largest prediction markets, including Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, or MYRIAD, has launched a token yet.
If you decide to use them, I recommend starting with a very small amount of money and diversifying your portfolio across multiple markets.
Make sure you’re consistently profitable for at least 3-4 weeks (or ideally more), and only then start betting bigger amounts of money if you feel comfortable.
Just like any other skill, it could take some time until you master it.
Cheers, and I hope you found this helpful!🥂
Crypto chart of the week
Ethereum L1 and L2 stablecoin supply is skyrocketing
Crypto Meme😂
The latest developments in DeFi
Jupiter introduced Jupiter Wallet for Desktop - a new Solana DeFi wallet
Fluid announced the Fluid reserve - a FLUID buyback & growth strategy
Polymarket raised $2 billion in funding
Alvara, a platform that enables on-chain ETF-style products and portfolio management, scheduled its full public release for 14 October
UR, a unified crypto and fiat account with 0 off-ramp fees, was fully launched. UR is built by the same team that is behind Mantle
Metamask & Rainbow wallet launched perps trading powered by Hyperliquid
Sui introduced suiUSDe and USDi - two native stablecoin products for the Sui Network powered by Ethena
Arbitrum announced the launch of its Season 2 Kaito Yap program. 700k $ARB will be given to the top 150 yappers on the Arbitrum Kaito Leaderboard
Plasma joined the Chainlink Scale Program and adopted Chainlink as its official oracle provider
Ethena announced JupUSD - Jupiter’s stablecoin built in partnership with Ethena. Its launch will happen in Q4
Sonic announced MCC Global will launch Resonance, a $25M Sonic ecosystem fund
Falcon Finance’s Miles Season 2 points program was launched
Huma Finance introduced the Project Flywheel and announced that $HUMA token buybacks will start in Q4
KYROS, a popular Solana restaking protocol, introduced its token KYROS
Ondo Finance announced the acquisition of Oasis Pro to accelerate its tokenization efforts in the United States
YZi Labs (Binance Labs) announced a $1 billion builder fund for the BNB Ecosystem
That’s all for this week!
Until next time,
The DeFi Investor
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