🔎Best airdrop opportunity of 2026

weekly valuable insights

GM friends.

Here’s what I’ll cover today:

🔎Why you should farm prediction markets

📊 Crypto chart of the week

🗞️ The latest DeFi news

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🔎Why you should farm prediction markets

2025 was the year of perps DEX airdrops.

Those who farmed Lighter, Avantis, or Aster got some massive airdrops. And I still think that farming certain perps DEXs like Extended makes sense.

However, I expect the biggest airdrops this year to come from prediction markets.

In this issue, I’ll explain why, cover the prediction market platforms I am farming, and share a few strategies you can use to farm them effectively.

First of all, the answer to “why” is simple:

Prediction market platforms are more time-consuming and harder to farm with size by whales than almost all other airdrops.

This is a good thing if you are willing to spend some time farming, as it also means your competition is significantly smaller. And historically, the best airdrops came from dApps that required completing time-consuming tasks rather than passive liquidity provision.

Secondly, prediction market platforms are one of the very few crypto products that actually found PMF. Mainstream media is regularly covering them, and Polymarket raised $2 billion in one of the largest crypto funding rounds ever last year.

Hence, I think it’s likely that $POLY will have a lot of buyers at TGE, and a high token valuation is key for a protocol to be able to do a big airdrop in dollar terms.

Here is some actual data and math:

According to DeFiLlama, Polymarket has only $350M TVL.

Assuming it launches a token at a $10B FDV ($9B is the valuation of its last VC round) and it airdrops only 5% of its supply to users, that 5% airdrop would be worth $500M.

Obviously, its airdrop will likely be based more on trading volume and other metrics rather than TVL alone, but the fact that its airdrop could be worth more than the platform’s total TVL makes me think farming it is a very good idea.

While a Polymarket airdrop isn’t officially confirmed, there have been many signs over the past few months that indicate that its token is launching soon:

Now let’s dive into some tokenless prediction market protocols:

(after this, I’ll also cover a few farming strategies)

Tokenless prediction market platforms I am farming

My highest conviction airdrops in this category are Polymarket and Opinion.

~80-85% of my funds allocated to farming prediction markets are deposited on those, as I think it’s very likely those will do a big airdrop.

But I also use a few other lesser-known platforms.

Here’s an overview of the prediction market apps I am farming besides Polymarket:

1. Opinion

• It’s backed by YZi Labs (formerly known as Binance Labs)

• It’s the third-largest prediction market platform at this moment

• It has a points program live, and it launched on BNB Chain in Nov. 2025

• There’s a 96% chance that it will launch a token by June 30 and a 47% chance that its token will have an FDV above $500M according to Polymarket

• The majority of markets on Opinion are also available on Polymarket, enabling users to arbitrage the prediction markets that are available on both platforms

• It has $47M in annualized revenue

Here is my invite link for a fee discount ← (invite code NywzPc)

(Note: this isn’t sponsored. I am farming all of these protocols with my own money)

2. Predict

• It’s backed by YZi Labs as well

• Has a points program with 10,000,000 points distributed every week

• Predict deposits user funds into Venus, a popular money market on BNB Chain, in order to generate a yield, which is then given to users on a weekly basis

• Placing limit orders for a new market and maintaining a high open interest across a wide range of markets will earn you more points on the platform

You can use my link for a 10% fee discount ←

1. Probable

• It’s backed by YZi Labs (again) and Pancakeswap

• Its points program rewards users based on trading volume, referral activity, liquidity provisioning, and how long they keep a position

• Some of the prediction markets on Probable are unique and can’t be found elsewhere

Here is my link to Probable ←

Besides Polymarket and Kalshi (I didn’t include Kalshi as I think it’s unlikely to do an airdrop), those are the most popular prediction market apps right now.

Opinion, Predict, Probable are very similar, to be frank, and they are all built on BNB Chain, but Opinion has the first mover advantage as it is the first one that went live, so I am focusing primarily on this one.

It’s obvious that a big part of their trading volume isn’t organic and is driven by users farming points.

Still, I think it’s worth farming them for one key reason:

CZ and several well-known figures from the BNB ecosystem have been actively promoting these three platforms for a while.

The same thing happened with Aster DEX, which is also built on BNB Chain.

Because CZ heavily shilled $ASTER post-TGE, $ASTER hit $15 billion FDV at its peak, and the first ASTER airdrop became one of the best airdrops of 2026.

Farming prediction market apps on BNB Chain may also pay off in a similar way.

How to farm prediction markets

I will cover 3 different ways to do this.

The most straightforward way is to just place bets based on your conviction.

Let’s say that you spend a lot of time on CT and you know everything about what’s happening in crypto.

Then you might be able to use Polymarket organically and generate volume by placing calculated bets on crypto markets like “Will there be a Hyperliquid airdrop in 2026” or “What will be USDai FDV 1 day after launch?” based on your research when you spot a market that you believe is mispriced.

However, if I am being honest, I think that most people should avoid doing this.

It’s not very easy to be a profitable trader. Fortunately, there are also many other ways in which you can farm prediction markets without taking high risks.

Here are a few strategies:

1. Provide liquidity via limit orders

Polymarket has a section called Rewards, where you can see which markets are incentivized with USDC rewards for users who place limit orders near the mid-price.

The other prediction market platforms I mentioned earlier also reward liquidity providers with points rewards.

There are multiple methods to farm liquidity rewards, but this is what I am doing:

• Go to the Rewards section (this example is for Polymarket, but limit orders will earn you points on all prediction market platforms)

• Sort markets by “Reward” (click on this word) and filter them by the categories you are familiar with (e.g., you can select crypto and politics)

• Scroll down till you find a prediction market that you’re confident will resolve in a certain way, or you believe is unlikely to be volatile in the near future

• Place limit orders for buying YES or NO shares close to mid price, depending on what you believe will be the result of the market]

I’ll give you an example:

There’s a market called “Major CEX insolvent in 2026?”, which resolves to YES only if Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken will be insolvent by the end of the year.

While no one outside their teams can know their exact financial situation, I think it is highly unlikely that any of them will file for bankruptcy anytime soon, especially given that most CEXs have seen positive inflows recently.

This market I mentioned offers 10 USDC in daily rewards to LPs, as shown in the image above.

So my strategy is to simply place a limit buy order betting NO (No Major CEX insolvent in 2026) right below the mid price, and after the order gets filled, place a sell limit order for the NO shares right above the mid price.

It’s very important to place the limit order very close to the mid price to earn rewards.

I’ve been doing this for quite a few days for this market and earned a few dozen dollars. The idea is not to get rich by providing liquidity, as the LP rewards are small, but earning LP rewards might qualify you for the Polymarket airdrop.

Polymarket needs deep liquidity, so if it does an airdrop, I am pretty sure it will reward liquidity providers.

2. Arbitrage prediction markets

The great thing about the prediction markets available on Opinion, Predict, and Probable is that almost all of them are also available on Polymarket.

This enables generating a lot of prediction volume while earning a nice yield risk-free by arbitraging them when the odds are slightly different.

To give you an example, let’s say that there’s a market “Will Trump resign by March 31?” on both Polymarket and Opinion.

On Polymarket, suppose that you can bet YES on this happening at 8c (8% chance).

On Opinion, let’s imagine you can bet NO on this happening at 90c (90% chance of this not happening).

When this market expires, either the YES or the NO shares will be worth $1.

But you can buy 1 YES share on Polymarket at 8c and 1 NO share on Opinion at 90c, for a total of 98c, which will turn into $1 when the market expires, regardless of the outcome. (leaving you with a ~2% return)

My recommendation is to arbitrage only markets that expire within 60 days.

This is the best way to generate volume and farm prediction markets risk-free, as long as you carefully read the rules to make sure you don’t arbitrage two different markets.

You can find prediction market arbitrage opportunities in two ways:

• Manually, by searching for identical markets with slightly different odds on two prediction market platforms (the advantage is that you can do this 100% free, although it may take you some time to find an opportunity)

• Automatically, by using a tool like Alert Pilot or Oxygen Delta that uses AI to automatically find arbitrage opportunities

Alert Pilot

The tool I’ve been using the most is Alert Pilot. It’s the best one out there in my opinion, but it requires paying a monthly subscription, so it’s probably worth using only if you’re planning to do prediction market arbitrage with significant capital.

Oxygen Delta is a tool for prediction market arbitrage that's free, though, based on my experience, it is less accurate and doesn’t show all opportunities.

And those are the ways I wanted to show you for farming prediction markets.

This has been a long post, but I really hope that you found it helpful!

I strongly believe that farming prediction markets airdrops will pay off big in 2026.

Polymarket could easily do one of the biggest crypto airdrops ever, even if it decides to airdrop only a small percentage of its supply.

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Chart of the week

Altcoin selling pressure is at multi-year highs

Source: CryptoQuant

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Crypto meme of the week😂

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The latest developments in DeFi

Aave proposed directing 100% of product revenue to Aave DAO

Hyperliquid introduced Hyperliquid Policy Center - a US lobbying group to advocate for DeFi-friendly regulations

INFINIT launched Prompt-to-DeFi to the public with enhanced AI strategy creation features and a rewards program

Base left Optimism Stack to build its own chain stack

Jupiter’s proposal to pause JUP token emissions went live

Lighter launched unified collateral for spot and perps

Mantle launched a 6-month incentive program for Aave users on Mantle

Ethereum Foundation Co-Executive Director stepped down

Morpho announced that Apollo, an asset manager with $840B+ assets, will buy up to 90M MORPHO tokens over the next 4 years

Tether invested in Hyperliquid frontend Dreamcash

Hibachi received an investment from Circle Ventures

EtherFi is migrating its crypto card from Scroll to OP Mainnet

Canton Network launched the first private payroll for institutions

DeFiLlama launched DefiLlama Search - a free tool that protects users against fake domain scams

Aptos announced it is moving to performance-driven token unlocks

That’s all for this week!

Until next time,

The DeFi Investor

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